FA
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- FTAI delivered a strong Q2 with revenue of $676.2M and diluted EPS of $1.57, both above S&P consensus (Revenue $542.6M*, EPS $1.36*). Adjusted EBITDA was $347.8M, up 30% q/q and 63% y/y, driven by Aerospace Products momentum . Estimates from S&P Global: Revenue $542.6M*, EPS $1.36*.
- Management raised 2025 outlook: total segment Adjusted EBITDA to $1.25–$1.30B (from $1.10–$1.15B), Aerospace Products to $650–$700M (from $600–$650M), Aviation Leasing to ~$600M including $54M insurance, and 2025 Adjusted FCF target to ~$750M (from ~$650M), citing SCI ramp and MRE adoption .
- Operationally, module production ramped to 184 CFM56 modules (+33% q/q), AP Adjusted EBITDA reached $164.9M at 34% margin, and AP market share increased to ~9% annualized (vs ~5% last year) .
- Liquidity remained solid with $301.9M cash and a fully undrawn $400M revolver; dividend maintained at $0.30 for the quarter .
- Potential stock catalysts: upward revisions on higher 2025 FCF/EBITDA guidance, PMA part approval timeline (most significant part targeted around October per partner Chromalloy), and acceleration of SCI deployments and QuickTurn Europe ramp .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- “FTAI delivered an excellent quarter, generating over $400 million in positive Adjusted Free Cash Flow,” and ended with $302M cash and $400M undrawn revolver .
- Aerospace Products Adjusted EBITDA grew 26% q/q to $164.9M at a 34% margin; AP market share ~9% annualized vs 5% a year ago .
- Module production ramped to 184 (+33% q/q) across Montreal, Miami, and Rome; QuickTurn Europe closed, adding capacity toward 1,800 modules per year at full ramp .
- What Went Wrong
- AP margin mixed by deal mix: a large U.S. airline exchange program carried “lower margin” terms to seed a strategic relationship; management expects mix to normalize and margins to expand in 2026 with PMA and repairs .
- Continued interest expense headwind: Q2 interest expense of $64.0M, with total other expense modestly negative; leverage reduction and potential refinancings are under evaluation, but near-term callability limits options .
- Equity losses from unconsolidated entities and profit eliminations tied to SCI (e.g., $(5.0)M equity losses; profit eliminations excluded in non-GAAP) add noise to GAAP results as the partnership scales .
Financial Results
Performance vs prior year, prior quarter, and S&P estimates
Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus estimates (marked with *).
Segment revenue composition
Segment EBITDA snapshot (where disclosed)
KPIs and operating metrics
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our Aerospace Products segment continued to perform, with 81% year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2025 and an increase in market share to approximately 9% on an annualized basis, up from 5% last year.”
- “We refurbished 184 CFM56 modules this quarter… an increase of 33% versus last quarter… we anticipate these measures will contribute to drive significant production growth over the next several quarters.”
- “We are increasing our overall target from $650 million to now $750 million in adjusted free cash flow for all of 2025… updating total estimated 2025 business segment EBITDA from $1.1–$1.15 billion to $1.25–$1.3 billion.”
- On PMA timeline: partner Chromalloy submitted final application for the most significant part by May 1; prior similar approval took six months, implying an October timeline; additional parts in 2026 .
Q&A Highlights
- AP margin path to 40%+ in 2026 driven by PMA, vertical integration (e.g., Pacific Aerodynamic compressor blade/vane repairs), procurement programs, and mix normalization; 5–10 pts uplift expected in 2026 .
- Capacity to ~1,800 modules/year targeted within two years; technician hiring/training (academy + AR simulation) is bottleneck focus; Rome and Montreal favorable talent markets .
- SCI: 145 aircraft owned/LOI across ~50 customers; SDI/SCI 2 decision likely in Q3/Q4; model seen as repeatable with strong LP demand .
- Next-gen engine timing: LEAP/GTF assets likely around 2028–2029 as platforms stabilize, PBH programs roll off, and economics improve .
- China opportunity enabled via QuickTurn Europe’s license; large installed fleet with low new orders extends in-service lives, boosting shop visits and exchange demand .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 outperformed consensus: revenue $676.2M vs $542.6M* and diluted EPS $1.57 vs $1.36* . Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus estimates (marked with *).
- Adjusted EBITDA of $347.8M exceeded S&P EBITDA consensus of $285.9M*, though definitions differ versus company non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA .
- Implications: Street models likely need higher AP volumes/margins and SCI contribution, plus higher 2H FCF and segment EBITDA to reflect raised guidance .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- AP engine aftermarket flywheel is working: rising module throughput, faster TAT, and deepening vertical integration support sustained volume growth and margin expansion into 2026 (40%+ AP margin target) .
- SCI is a structural accelerant: sizable on-lease aircraft pipeline (145 owned/LOI) drives AP demand, fee income, and capital-light growth; a follow-on vehicle appears likely in 2H25 .
- Guidance reset is material: 2025 segment EBITDA +~10% at midpoint and FCF +~15% vs prior, increasing probability of capital returns after ratings goal is met (<3x leverage) .
- Near-term catalysts: potential PMA part approval for the most significant part around October; additional repair capabilities (Pacific Aerodynamic) should aid margins .
- Execution watch items: deal mix impacts on AP margin (e.g., low-margin seeding deals), SCI closing cadence, and technician hiring/training to sustain module ramp .
- Strategic optionality: balance sheet strength (cash $301.9M; undrawn $400M revolver) positions FTAI to pursue targeted M&A in repairs and consider buybacks as excess cash builds .
- Medium-term thesis: extended useful lives of NG/ceo fleets, OEM price inflation, and AP market share gains (now ~9%) support durable growth even if secondary engine prices plateau .
Notes: Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus estimates (marked with *). All non-GAAP metrics, including Adjusted EBITDA, are as defined and reconciled in FTAI’s materials. Sources: Q2’25 press release and 8‑K exhibits ; Q2’25 earnings call transcript ; Q1’25 press release ; Q4’24 press release ; QuickTurn Europe closing press release .